At the close of 2021’s second quarter, analysts at Lodging Econometrics (LE) report that the total U.S. construction pipeline stands at 4,787 projects/598,111 rooms, down 14% Year-Over-Year (YOY) by projects from Q2 2020’s 5,582 projects/687,801 rooms. This decline in pipeline totals YOY is largely a result of projects that were delayed in the under construction phase of the pipeline as a result of COVID, now having exited the pipeline and opened.

During the first and second quarters of 2021, the U.S. opened 472 new hotels with 59,034 rooms. LE is forecasting another 450 projects/51,754 rooms to open during 2021 for a total of 922 projects/110,788 rooms by year-end. This will represent a 2.0% increase in new supply for 2021. 1,008 projects/113,871 rooms are expected to open in 2022, representing a 2.0% increase in new supply for 2022. And, announcing for the first time this quarter is LE’s forecast for 2023, which LE is expecting 997 projects/115,271 rooms to open. This is again a 2.0% increase in new supply.

Following a nearly 16-month hiatus related to COVID-19 shutdowns, the first half of 2021 saw a substantial uptick in hotel bookings and travel reservation numbers. As vaccination rates rise and travel restrictions ease, consumer confidence continues to increase, and booking numbers move toward pre-pandemic levels. As demand increases, new hotel project announcements will soon follow. There were a total of 372 new projects accounting for 45,084 rooms announced into the pipeline in the first half of 2021. Of those totals, 202 new project announcements with 25,653 rooms occurred in the second quarter. The arrival of summer, a rebounding demand for domestic business and leisure travel, combined with the recent pledge from the U.S. Department of Commerce to invest $750 million in the travel and tourism industries, has investors and developers feeling increasingly optimistic. This confidence has resulted in a 20% increase in new project announcements in Q2 2021 when compared to the second quarter of 2020 when 169 projects/20,359 rooms were recorded.

Projects currently under construction stand at 1,165 projects/159,581 rooms. Projects scheduled to start construction in the next 12 months total 1,843 projects/213,744 rooms. Projects in the early planning stage saw a 25% increase in projects and a 28% increase in rooms YOY, standing at 1,779 projects/224,786 rooms. The increase in projects in the early planning stage reflects a combination of developer’s confidence to initiate new construction projects and the recalibration of some of their timelines for existing projects.

As COVID-19 safety guidelines and restrictions evolve across the country and in anticipation of international travel bans being lifted, more hotels are reestablishing renovation plans, and/or are repositioning their properties with a brand conversion. In the first half of 2021, experts at LE recorded 1,152 active renovation projects/238,110 rooms and 1,181 active conversion projects/128,810 rooms throughout the United States.

Marriott Has the Largest Construction Pipeline of U.S. Franchise Companies in Q2‘21

In the second quarter of 2021, analysts at Lodging Econometrics (LE) report that the top franchise companies with the largest construction pipelines are: Marriott International with 1,301 projects/170,847 rooms, Hilton Worldwide with 1,216 projects/139,172 rooms, and InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) with 777 projects/78,929 rooms. Development projects with these three franchise companies comprise 69% of all projects in the total construction pipeline.

The largest brands for each of these companies are Marriott’s Fairfield Inn with 257 projects/25,051 rooms, Hilton’s Home2 Suites by Hilton, with 379 projects/39,584 rooms and IHG’s Holiday Inn Express with 303 projects/29,055 rooms. These three brands make up 20% of the total construction pipeline rooms in the U.S.

Other high-volume brands in the pipeline for each of these franchises are Marriott’s TownePlace Suites with 198 projects/19,422 rooms and Residence Inn with 189 projects/23,493 rooms; Hilton’s Hampton by Hilton with 269 projects/28,071 rooms and Tru by Hilton with 235 projects/22,521 rooms; and IHG’s Avid Hotel with 157 projects/13,842 rooms and Staybridge Suites with 122 projects/12,607 rooms.

In the second quarter of 2021, LE recorded 583 conversion projects/63,807 rooms. Of these conversion totals, Best Western leads with 116 conversion projects/10,289 rooms, accounting for 20% of the conversion pipeline by projects. Following Best Western is Choice Hotels, Marriott International, and Hilton Worldwide. Best Western and these three franchise companies combined account for 61% of all the rooms in the conversion pipeline across the United States.

472 new hotels with 59,034 rooms opened across the United States during the first half of 2021. Marriott, Hilton, and IHG collectively opened 74% of the hotels. Marriott opened 152 hotels with 20,416 rooms, Hilton opened 125 hotels/16,970 rooms, and IHG opened 72 hotels/7,249 rooms.

New York Leads the U.S. Hotel Construction Pipeline at the Close of Q2‘21

According to Lodging Econometrics’ (LE) most recent construction pipeline trend report, at the close of the second quarter, the top five markets with the largest hotel construction pipelines are New York City, with 146 projects/25,232 rooms; Los Angeles with 135 projects/22,586 rooms; Dallas with 132 projects/16,183 rooms; Atlanta with 129 projects/17,845 rooms; and Nashville with 91 projects/12,703 rooms.

The five top markets with the most projects currently under construction are New York City with 111 projects/19,582 rooms, Atlanta with 39 projects/5,795 rooms, Los Angeles with 34 projects/5,771 rooms, Dallas with 30 projects/4,173 rooms, and Austin with 29 projects/3,768 rooms. These five markets collectively account for nearly 25% of the total number of rooms currently under construction in the U.S.

According to LE’s research, many hotel owners, developers, and management groups have used the operational downtime, caused by COVID-19’s impact on operating performance, as an opportunity to upgrade and renovate their hotels and/or redefine their hotels with a brand conversion. In the second quarter of 2021, LE recorded a combined renovation and conversion total of 1,135 active projects with 176,445 rooms for the U.S. The markets with the largest combined number of renovations and conversions are New York with 25 projects/7,957 rooms, Houston with 24 projects/3,549 rooms, Los Angeles with 24 projects/3,423 rooms, Chicago with 20 projects/2,803 rooms, and Miami with 19 projects/2,305 rooms.

Despite previous, and in some cases, ongoing delays in the pipeline, and with the recent changes to travel restrictions and the summer travel season upon us, many developers are feeling more optimistic about the future of the lodging industry as new hotel announcements continue. In the second quarter of 2021, Memphis recorded the highest count of new projects announced into the pipeline with 8 projects/927 rooms. Austin followed with 7 projects/1,084 rooms, then Atlanta with 6 projects/658 rooms, Washington DC with 5 projects/1,554 rooms, and Miami with 5 projects/499 rooms.

Hotels forecast to open in 2021 are led by New York City with 59 projects/8,583 rooms for a 7.2% supply increase, followed by Orlando with 22 projects/ 3,555 rooms for a 2.6% supply increase, Nashville with 22 projects/2,938 rooms for a 5.7% supply increase, Atlanta with 22 projects/2,930 rooms for a 2.7% supply increase, and then Houston with 22 projects/2,470 rooms for a 2.7% supply increase.

In 2022, New York is forecast to, again, top the list of new hotel openings with 46 projects/7,934 rooms while at this time, Dallas is anticipated to lead in 2023 with 35 projects/4,013 rooms expected to open.