Newly Released 2026 Hotel Openings Forecast from Lodging Econometrics Expects Significant Growth in U.S. Hotel Supply Through 2026

As seen in the Q2 2024 U.S. Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), at the end of the second quarter, there are 6,095 projects with 713,151 rooms in the pipeline. This new all-time high represents a 9% year-over-year (YOY) increase in projects and an 8% YOY increase in rooms compared to Q2 2023 totals.

At the close of the second quarter, there are 1,171 projects comprising 147,611 rooms under construction, marking a 10% increase in projects and a 4% increase in rooms YOY. Projects slated to start construction in the next 12 months total 2,350 projects with 268,378 rooms, reflecting a 5% increase in projects and a 3% increase in rooms YOY. Projects and room counts in the early planning stage increased by 13% and 15% YOY, respectively, ending the quarter at 2,574 projects and 297,162 rooms. LE expects that as interest rates begin to decline, projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months will move to under construction rather quickly.

Extended-stay brands continue to remain popular with developers, accounting for 36% of the total projects under construction, 33% of projects scheduled to begin within the next 12 months, and 34% of projects in the early planning stage. Sixty-four percent of the projects in the extended-stay pipeline are in the middle tier of brands.

LE analysts report that the upper midscale chain scale stands at 2,262 projects/219,547 rooms and has the largest project count of all chain scales in the total construction pipeline at Q2. The second largest is the upscale chain scale, which has 1,417 projects/175,343 rooms. Together, the upscale and upper midscale chain scales comprise 60% of all projects in the total pipeline.

According to LE analysts, 250 new hotels with 29,777 rooms opened in the U.S. during the first and second quarters of 2024. Over half of the hotels that have already opened in 2024 are upscale and upper midscale, at 154 projects/19,797 rooms and 237 projects/23,160 rooms, respectively. These two chain scales are forecasted to have the highest growth rates, through 2026. The upscale chain scale is forecasted to grow its current supply by 2.2% and upper midscale by 2.0% in 2024; both chain scales are expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025; and in 2026, the chain scales should have 3.0% and 2.6% growth, respectively.

In Q1 and Q2, 90 new extended-stay hotels/9,134 rooms opened in the U.S. At year-end 2024, 223 new extended-stay hotels/22,933 rooms are expected to open. In 2025, 304 new extended-stay hotels/31,225 rooms are anticipated to open, and in 2026, LE is forecasting 363 new extended-stay hotels/38,165 rooms to open.

The LE forecast for the remainder of 2024 includes the opening of another 400 projects with 44,451 rooms, totaling 650 new hotels with 74,228 rooms by year-end. The year-end 2024 forecast represents a 35% increase over the total number of hotel openings in 2023, which stood at 480 hotels/60,922 rooms. Looking ahead to 2025, LE analysts anticipate an additional 779 new hotels/87,405 rooms to open. And, announcing for the first time, is LE’s U.S. New Hotel Openings Forecast for 2026, which estimates 928 projects/101,796 rooms to open in the U.S. equating to a 1.8% new supply increase.

Dallas at Forefront of U.S. Hotel Development; New Forecast for Hotel Openings for 2026

According to the recent Q2 2024 United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), at the close of the quarter, the five markets with the largest hotel construction pipelines are led by Dallas with 189 projects, just four projects shy of its record-high at the end of Q4 2023, and a new record-high 22,392 rooms. Atlanta follows with a record-high 159 projects/18,522 rooms, then the Inland Empire with a record-high 124 projects/12,569 rooms, Nashville with 123 projects/15,924 rooms, and Phoenix with 120 projects/15,627 rooms.

Ten states claim 60% of the rooms in the pipeline: Texas, California, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, Arizona, New York, Alabama, and Michigan.

As of the end of Q2, five U.S. markets stand out for their active under construction hotel projects. New York leads with 46 projects totaling 7,572 rooms, followed by Dallas with 30 projects and 3,523 rooms. Atlanta is third with 23 projects comprising 2,765 rooms, while Nashville and Phoenix tie, each with 22 projects. However, Phoenix’s projects account for more rooms at 3,993, compared to Nashville’s 3,049 rooms.

At Q2, Dallas, with 73 projects/8,787 rooms, has the most projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months. Following Dallas are Atlanta with 68 projects/8,300 rooms, Inland Empire with 64 projects/6,298 rooms, Phoenix with 57 projects/6,855 rooms, and Austin with 52 projects/6,742 rooms.

Dallas tops the list of markets with the most hotel projects in the early planning stage, at Q2, boasting 86 projects that will add 10,082 rooms. Atlanta follows with 68 projects set to bring 7,457 rooms, while Nashville has 51 projects totaling 6,264 rooms. Austin and Los Angeles round out the top five, with Austin at 46 projects and 5,006 rooms and Los Angeles with 45 projects and 7,693 rooms.

In the second quarter, LE recorded a combined U.S. renovation and conversion total of 2,007 active projects with 262,178 rooms. The markets with the largest combined number of renovations and conversions, at Q2, are Atlanta with 33 projects/46,60 rooms, Los Angeles with 29 projects/4,552 rooms, Chicago with 28 projects/7,654 rooms, Phoenix with 28 projects/4,883 rooms, and Washington, DC-MD-VA with 27 projects/4,036 rooms.

Three hundred one new project announcements (NPAs), accounting for 39,793 rooms, were announced during the second quarter. At Q2, Atlanta, with 10 projects/1,140 rooms, has the largest number of new projects announced into the pipeline, followed by Dallas with 10 projects/1,051 rooms, Miami with 9 projects/1,423 rooms, Indianapolis with 9 projects/813 rooms, and New Orleans with 8 projects/1,371 rooms.

According to LE analysts, 250 new hotels with 29,777 rooms opened in the U.S. during the first and second quarter of 2024. Over 64% of these opens, 159 hotels/16,809 rooms were in suburban locations, and 42% (or 105 hotels/15,127 rooms), were located within the top 50 markets.

The LE forecast for the remainder of 2024 includes the opening of another 400 hotels with 44,451 rooms, totaling 650 new hotels with 74,228 rooms by year-end. The year-end 2024 forecast represents a 35% increase over the total number of hotel openings in 2023, which stood at 480 hotels/60,922 rooms. Three hundred four of the new opens in 2024 (or 47%) will be in the top 50 markets.
Of the top 50 markets in the U.S., the New York City market is forecast to open 23 new hotels, adding 2,731 rooms by year-end 2024. The New York market is followed by Dallas with 16 new hotels/2,025 rooms, Atlanta with 15 new hotels/2,753 rooms, Inland Empire with 14 new hotels/1,455 rooms, and Orlando with 13 new hotels/2,397 rooms by year-end 2024.

Announcing for the first time, the LE Forecast for New Hotel Openings in 2026 forecasts Dallas to lead in the largest number of new hotel openings with 34 new hotels/3,644 rooms, followed by Inland Empire with 28 new hotels/2,644 rooms, Phoenix with 27 new hotels/2,793 rooms, Atlanta with 26 new hotels/3,109 rooms, and Austin with 18 new hotels/2,142 rooms forecast to open by year-end.