The U.S. Construction Pipeline Stands at 4,814 Projects/581,953 Rooms at Year-End 2021

Analysts at Lodging Econometrics (LE) report that at the fourth quarter close of 2021, the total U.S. construction pipeline stands at 4,814 projects/581,953 rooms, down 8% by projects and 10% by rooms year-over-year (YOY). While project totals have dipped slightly YOY, the number of projects in the early planning stage continues to rise. In the final quarter of 2021, projects in the early planning stage experienced an 18% increase by projects and 11% by rooms YOY, for a total of 2,021 projects/239,816 rooms.

Projects scheduled to start construction in the next 12 months stand at 1,821 projects/210,890 rooms at the end of the fourth quarter. Projects under construction finished the year at 972 projects/131,247 rooms. New project announcements are down in the fourth quarter; however, developers are eager to accelerate projects long-delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, they face some development roadblocks, including escalating inflation and supply chain shortages, that are causing higher prices versus “pre-pandemic” costs for labor and materials. These factors continue to prolong hotel development timelines. We anticipate these challenges to abate throughout the year and see construction starts moderately improve.

Nevertheless, the hotel industry has found some assurance in the recent resurgence of travel demand and the steady increase in hotel booking numbers over recent months. Pandemic exhaustion and pent-up demand for “get-aways” have led to a growing number of Americans becoming more open to travel. In addition to leisure travel, the business sector has a strong desire to travel and meet in person. LE analysts are expecting higher attendance at industry conferences and events after Q1‘22. This will help to raise hotel business demand and positively impact the industry as a whole.

Through year-end 2021, the U.S. opened 823 projects accounting for 105,705 rooms, for a growth rate of 1.9%. For 2022, LE is forecasting 783 projects/90,074 rooms to open at a supply growth rate of 1.6%. In 2023, continuing at a supply growth rate of 1.6%, another 820 projects/93,112 rooms are anticipated to open by year-end.

Record High Counts for Franchise Companies in the Early Planning Stage at the end of Q4‘21

As seen in the Lodging Econometrics (LE) Q4‘21 United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report, the franchise companies with the largest U.S. construction pipelines at year-end 2021 are Marriott International with 1,345 projects/170,586 rooms, followed by Hilton Worldwide with 1,239 projects/141,053 rooms, and InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) with 761 projects/76,987 rooms. These three companies combined account for 69% of the projects and 67% of the rooms in the total U.S. construction pipeline.

At the end of Q4‘21, over 56% of Hilton’s projects in the pipeline are in the early planning project stage, a record-high by projects in this stage for the company, with 689 projects/76,058 rooms. Hilton has 228 projects/29,036 under construction at Q4 and 322 projects/35,959 rooms scheduled to start within the next 12 months. Marriott also hit a record high for both projects and rooms in early planning at the end of the fourth quarter, with 534 projects/63,120 rooms. Marriott has 262 projects, accounting for 38,289 rooms under construction at the end of Q4 and 549 projects/69,177 rooms are scheduled to start in the next 12 months. IHG currently has 121 projects, accounting for 11,376 rooms, in the early planning stage. 136 projects, with 16,221 rooms, in IHG’s pipeline, are in the under construction stage while 504 projects/49,390 rooms are scheduled to start within the next 12 months.

The leading brands by project count for the top three franchise companies continue to be Hilton’s Home2 Suites by Hilton with 421 projects/43,824 rooms, IHG’s Holiday Inn Express with 288 projects/27,620 rooms, and Marriott’s Fairfield Inn with 247 projects/23,344 rooms. These three brands dominate the pipeline and combined claim 20% of the projects.

Other notable brands in the pipeline for the top franchise companies at Q4 are Marriott’s TownePlace Suites with 239 projects/22,759 rooms and Residence Inn with 212 projects/25,896 rooms; Hilton’s Tru by Hilton brand with 222 projects/21,222 rooms and the Hampton by Hilton brand with 267 projects/27,577 rooms; and IHG’s Avid Hotel with 148 projects/12,885 rooms and Staybridge Suites with 124 projects/12,734 rooms.

Through year-end 2021, Marriott, Hilton, and IHG branded hotels represented 585 new hotel openings with 73,415 rooms. 201 of the hotels were Hilton brands, 267 were Marriott brands, and another 117 were IHG brands. The LE forecast for new hotel openings in 2022 anticipates that Marriott will open 207 projects/27,258 rooms, for a growth rate of 3.1%. Next is Hilton with 165 projects/18,764 rooms, for a growth rate of 2.5%, followed by IHG with 115 projects/12,397 rooms forecast to open for a growth rate of 2.9%. In 2023, Marriot is expected to open another 211 projects/25,056 rooms for a growth rate of 2.7%. LE predicts Hilton will open 173 projects/21,450 rooms, for a 2.8% growth rate by year-end 2023, while IHG is expected to see a 3.4% growth rate in 2023, with 148 new hotel projects, accounting for 15,146 rooms.

Dallas Leads as the Top Market by Project Count in the U.S. Hotel Construction Pipeline at Year-end 2021

In the recent U.S. Construction Pipeline Trend Report released by Lodging Econometrics (LE), at the close of the fourth quarter of 2021, Dallas leads the U.S. markets in the number of pipeline projects with 152 projects/18,180 rooms. Following Dallas, the U.S. markets with the largest total hotel construction pipelines by project count are Atlanta, at a cyclical high, with 133 projects/17,593 rooms; New York City with 121 projects/19,303 rooms; Los Angeles with 120 projects/19,815 rooms; and Houston, with 91 projects/9,912 rooms.

Despite the impact COVID-19 has had on hotel development, three markets in the U.S. announced more than 10 new construction projects in Q4‘21. Miami had the highest number of new projects announced into the pipeline with 17 projects/2,797 rooms. Following Miami is Dallas with 13 projects/1,308 rooms, and then Orlando with 11 projects/1,791 rooms.

Markets with the greatest number of projects already in the ground, at the end of the fourth quarter, are New York with 90 projects/14,513 rooms. Following distantly are Dallas with 28 projects/3,945 rooms, Austin with 28 projects/3,706 rooms, Atlanta with 26 projects/4,120 rooms, and Detroit with 23 projects under construction, accounting for 2,432 rooms. These five markets collectively account for 20% of the total number of projects currently under construction in the U.S.

Dallas has the most projects scheduled to start in the next 12 months, with 51 projects/5,989 rooms. Behind Dallas are Atlanta with 51 projects/5,989 rooms; Houston, with 42 projects/4,107 rooms; Los Angeles with 41 projects/6,278 rooms; and Phoenix with 38 projects/4,401 rooms. Dallas also has the largest number of projects in early planning, at the end of Q4’21, with 73 projects/8,246 rooms. Los Angeles follows with 57 projects/9,907 rooms; Atlanta 56 projects/6,561 rooms; Orlando 45 projects/7,896 rooms; and Nashville 38 projects/4,680 rooms.

The top 50 markets saw 449 hotels/63,742 rooms open in 2021. LE is forecasting these same 50 markets to open another 446 projects/57,837 rooms in 2022 for a 2.2% growth rate, and 421 projects/52,460 rooms in 2023 for a growth rate of 1.9%.

Moving into the New Year, an important metric to monitor will be markets with large construction pipelines as compared to their existing census of open & operating hotels. These markets are likely to see the fastest supply growth and largest supply-demand variances over the next few years. At the end of 2021, there were 17 markets with total pipelines in excess of 15% of their current census. Raleigh-Durham tops this list at 24.1%, followed by Miami, Fort Worth-Arlington, Austin, and then Memphis at 22.1%.

The markets topping the forecast for new hotel openings in 2022 will be New York City with 48 new hotels/6,656 rooms for a 5.4% growth rate, Atlanta with 22 projects/2,398 rooms for a 2.1% growth rate, Dallas with 21 projects/2,522 rooms for a 2.4% growth rate, and Austin with 20 projects/2,722 rooms for a 5.9% growth rate. LE expects a 2.1% average growth rate for the top 25 markets in 2022 and, come 2023, these top 25 markets will experience an average growth rate of 1.9%. New York will again top the charts in 2023 for new hotel openings. LE anticipates New York will open 42 new hotels, accounting for 7,058 rooms, again for a 5.4% growth rate, followed by Atlanta 21 projects/3,664 rooms for a 3.2% growth rate, and Dallas with 21 new opens/2,318 rooms for a growth rate of 2.2%.